Economic Signals & Trend Insights
In 2025, the global economy underwent an unprecedented structural transformation. Against the backdrop of persistent short-term disturbances, increased long-term uncertainty, and the deepening structural changes, the global economic growth outlook remains challenging. Simultaneously, regional differentiation and technological innovation are jointly altering growth patterns. The trend of geoeconomic fragmentation is becoming increasingly apparent, new technologies such as artificial intelligence bring numerous uncertainties, and the significant differences in growth paths across regions are severely challenging the old global economic order, while a new order is still under construction. Global economic growth is projected to be 3.0% and 3.1% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, an upward revision from the April 2025 World Economic Outlook forecast. This reflects the pre-implementation effects of tariffs, the reduction in effective tariff rates, improved financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in some major economies.
Current Status and Trends of the Global Economic Situation
The current state and trends of the global economic situation present a complex picture of coexisting "growth resilience" and "vulnerability risks." Major institutions generally predict a moderate slowdown in growth, but specific data varies. Here are the latest forecasts and key assessments from several major global institutions: The OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) forecasts 3.2% growth in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026 in December 2025. Its key assessment is that the economy is showing "resilience," but faces risks such as trade barriers, AI asset bubbles, and fiscal fragility. The UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) forecasts 2.6% growth in 2025 in December 2025, with no specific growth target for 2026. Its key assessment is that the world is at a "critical point," with financial volatility and policy uncertainty severely impacting trade and development. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) forecasts 3.2% growth in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026 in October 2025. Its key assessment is that after a "resilient" start, the economy is slowing moderately, with policy uncertainty being the main drag. The World Bank forecasts 2.3% growth in 2025 in June 2025, with no specific growth target for 2026. Its key assessment is that growth will slow significantly, with high tariffs and trade tensions being "major headwinds." Based on the latest reports from these international institutions, it can be seen that the current global economy exhibits a balance between resilience and risk. Future growth is expected to gradually slow, while trade patterns and growth drivers will also undergo new changes.
Global Macroeconomic Status Quo: Fragile Recovery and Structural Contradictions
Diverging Growth Momentum: The global economy is projected to maintain a moderate growth rate of 3.3% in 2025 (IMF data), but will show significant divergence:
- The US economy is more resilient than expected:
Benefiting from the AI industry boom and energy independence, GDP growth reached 2.7% (up 0.5 percentage points from 2024), but "Trump 2.0" policies bring the risk of escalating trade protectionism (new tariffs may cover $300 billion worth of Chinese goods).
- Europe is stagnant:
Geopolitical conflicts are dragging down manufacturing, with the Eurozone growth rate at only 1.0% (down 0.2 percentage points), and the cost of energy transition is accelerating the relocation of businesses overseas.
- Structural Rise of Emerging Markets:
India maintains high growth of 6.5%, and Southeast Asia absorbs 15% of China's low-end production capacity transfer, but vulnerable countries with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 95.1% face default risks (UN data).
Current Global Economic Development Status
Overall Growth Resilient but Diverging Growth Rates.
Global economic growth in 2025 exceeded expectations, with both the IMF and OECD predicting a growth rate of 3.2%. However, growth in developed economies slowed, with the US growth projected to fall to 2.0% in 2025 and the Eurozone to 1.3%; while emerging market and developing economies grew slightly above 4%, with South-South trade growing by 8%, far exceeding the global average, and Asia becoming the main contributor to global trade growth.
Diverging Trade Performance and Supply Chain Pressure.
Global merchandise trade surged 4.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, driven by demand for AI-related products and advance stockpiling in the US, but trade growth slowed in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, the global trade system has suffered severe turmoil, with the US tariff war causing significant damage. However, 72% of trade still adheres to the WTO's Most Favored Nation (MFN) principle, demonstrating a certain degree of resilience.
New Momentum and New Risks Accumulate Simultaneously
Investment and trade growth in artificial intelligence, as well as the development of industries such as green transportation, have injected new momentum into the global economy. For example, China's new energy vehicle industry has driven a recovery in manufacturing exports. However, risks are also accumulating. The US has a high fiscal deficit, the Eurozone's economic recovery is weak, and the high valuations of AI-related assets may be subject to correction. Fiscal vulnerability is also troubling many countries.
Key Characteristics of the Global Economic Situation
- "Resilience" Supported by Multiple Factors
Current growth resilience is mainly due to expansionary macroeconomic policies, the investment boom in new technologies such as artificial intelligence, and short-term behaviors such as "pre-importing" by companies to cope with tariff changes.
- "Vulnerability" Due to the Deep Integration of Finance and Trade
Trade is highly susceptible to adjustments in interest rates by major economies and changes in financial market sentiment. Fluctuations in financial conditions can quickly transmit to the real economy.
- Developing Countries Face Greater Pressure
Although the overall growth rate of developing countries is still expected to be higher than that of developed economies, they face higher financing costs, greater vulnerability to sudden reversals in capital flows, and more severe financial risks.
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